On Danny Hultzen, Guaranteed Money and a German

The MLB Signing deadline was at midnight eastern time on Monday, and even though the deal wasn't officially announced until after the deadline, the Mariners signed their top pick, #2 pick Danny Hultzen, left-handed starting pitcher from the University of Virginia. The deal included an 8.5 million guaranteed Major League deal, the most guaranteed money of the entire draft class. Already developed, Hultzen features excellent command and a plus change up to go with his low 90's fastball. He should move fast, perhaps reaching the big leagues before Paxton or Walker. Pitching depth is something to be protected. We can see this clearly with Atlanta, who entered the year with 5 great starters, but has already spread around about 20 starts between Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. Ideally the Mariners will trade Vargas, Beaven, Walker or Paxton for a quality 3B or C, since we have neither in our system. Mariners fans will certainly drool over the prospect of a King Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Walker, Paxton rotation, with Furbush and Beaven as flexible swing men. //The Mariners also brought two shortstops into the system, Brad Miller from Clemson and Gavin Cahoes from Germany. Both add depth and upside to one of the most difficult positions to develop talent.

On Young Mariners and Why the Future Just Isn't That Bright

The Mariners have Felix Hernandez locked up for a few more years, Pineda for a bunch, and James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen(fingers crossed) close behind. Paxton and Walker have cemented themselves as both elite starting pitching prospects and fast movers. So why isn't the future bright? The offense. We have little of it now and there's not much coming. We have Ackley, Smoak, Gutierrez and Ichiro as our only above average offensive options and Ichiro is in serious decline. Olivo, kennedy, Ryan, and Wilson are not solutions in any sense of the word. What about Mike Carp? He's hitting well now, but expecting 20+ batting runs from him is optimistic, and coupled with his poor defense, he's not likely a major league starter on a winning team. How about Trayvon Robinson? He has some pop and some speed, and age is on his side, but he exhibits the same propensity for strike outs that plague most minor leaguers. While not in Peguero or Halman territory, he still likely lacks the contact to be a contributing major leaguer. Casper Wells? Wells may actually be able to stick in LF, but is a #6 hitter at best. Kyle Seager? He won't hit as well as he has been doing in the minors, and will hit much better than he has in the majors, but at the end of the day he's a decent OBP guy with little power and little power potential. #7-8 hitter in an average lineup. Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, Alex Liddi and Matt Mangini are not major leaguers-take my word for it. Nick Franklin? He's seen his power development stagnate this year, and since he's unlikely to stick at SS may force a move to 3B since Ackley blocks him at 2B. This is a bat we can dream on as the potential is there to be a solid run producer. Expecting anything out of Wily Mo Pena, Johermyn Chavez, Rich Poythress or Dennis Raben will probably lead to disappointment. The only savior is years away: Guillermo Pimentel. He has crazy power and already exhibits pith recognition and plate discipline light years better than what Halman and Peguero show right now. The Mariners continue to stock the system via international signings and Pimentel is a shining example. In sum, if you think an Olivo, Smoak, Ackley, Ryan, Seager, Carp, Guti, Ichiro, Robinson lineup is anything but a bottom 5 in baseball, hopes may exceed reality. Hopefully a few guys pan out a bit above than expected, the pitching is phenomenal as expected and a big-name, left-handed power bat can be coaxed here in a few years.

On the Mariners, Zduriencik and a slight kid named Dustin

The Seattle Mariners just lost their 17th game in a row (and actually just won). That's good for a team record, albeit not the kind the 2011 Mariners wanted to be breaking. The anemic offense has continued to be anemic and the unbelievable pitching has regressed back to reality. The combination has resulted in a streak of ineptitude rarely seen. On the bright side, General Manager Jack Zduriencik won't be tempted to trade any young talent at the trade deadline in an attempt to make the playoffs. That idea sounds insane, but in't considering the Mariners were 0.5 games back a scant few weeks back. Instead, Erik Bedard, Adam Kennedy or others may be jettisoned to get younger and reduce cost. Let's talk about Zduriencik. I wouldn't place this blame on him. With a constricted budget due to existing free agent signings (sure, Figgins was one of Z's) Z filled holes with low cost options like Jack Cust, Adam Kennedy and Miguel Olivo (sort of). The abysmal performance from Figgins was so far from his career averages it feels like an abberration. Missed time from Franklin Gutierrez, the unfortunate and rapid succumbing of Ichiro to age and the continued ineptitude from Milton Bradley all contributed to the offensive malaise. Even going forward, significant holes at C, 3B, LF, DH and perhaps RF should give us little hope for the future. The pitching will be stellar, but some baseline offensive performance is needed to field a winner. Personally, I hope we don't pursue Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes and instead take an approach similar to the Toronto Blue Jays. In a matter of a few year, the Blue Jays have transformed their farm system into one containing depth in every possible way: hitters and pitchers, low levels and high levels, high-risk and low-risk. It would require a significant investment in the farm, and may involve a lessened focus on the current big-league roster that Zduriencik may not be able to stomach, given his waning job security. As an armchair GM, it's easy for me to punt the big-league team in order to concentrate on the future.

A big part of the Mariners future is this slight kid named Dustin. Drafted only last year out of North Carolina, Ackley did nothing but hit and get on base in the minors. The rare hand-eye coordination, bat control and quick wrists that propelled him to many college awards vaulted him to the Major Leagues in a very short time. The fact that he was a 1B in college, but transitioned to 2B in the pros, and has been able to more than hold his own, is a testament to his athletic ability. His average defense, coupled with fantastic average and on base skills, and possibly 10-15 home run potential down the road add up to a significantly valuable player going forward for the Mariners.

Why Trading Felix Hernandez is the right move for the Mariners

If you made it past the title and are still reading this, you're either quite smart or simply have nothing better to do. While trading Felix Hernandez is a move that will likely never happen, due to the tremendous fan backlash, here's why I think it makes sense:

Proposal: Trade Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Brandon League and Miguel Olivo to the New York Yankees.

1. The Yankees are hurting in the pitching department like never before, giving the Mariners incredible leverage. Any Pettitte didn't come out of retirement, AJ Burnett has been terrible as expected, Phil Hughes and the resurgent Bartolo Colon are on the DL, Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain are on the DL, and Manny Banuelos is not ready for the bigs.

2. The Mariners are not as good as their record. Miguel Olivo, Brendan Ryan and Carlos Peguero won't continue to hit like this, Pineda will hit his rough spots and Bedard likely can't stay healthy.

3. The Yankees have a very strong farm system. Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine, Slade Heathcott, Adam Warren, Graham Stoneburner, etc, etc, etc, etc.

The basic reasoning is the Yankees have incredible needs and incredible demands from the fan base and ownership. The Mariners can't win this year, or next in all likelihood. I'd still need a lot from NY. Any package would have to start with Gardner, Montero and Banuelos. If the Yankees are willing to start there as well as include middle-level prospects like Eduardo Nunez, Betances, Noesi, Brackman, Heathcott, Laird, etc, then the Mariners should absolutely have the discussion. If I told you that this trade would decrease our chances of making the playoffs in 2011 from 15% to 5%, from 20% to 10% in 2012, but increased it from 10% to 20% in 2013 and from 15% to 30% in 2014, isn't this a trade you make?

Seattle

I just watched this video created in honor of Dave Niehaus. It reminded me how much I love Seattle and all the memories I have of Seattle sports. I recall all the times I've walked from my house to HecEd or the football stadium, joining the purple masses of Husky nation. I remember Mike Jensen's three from the corner to beat WSU. I remember the great team of Nate the Great, Conroy, Jones, Jensen, Simmons, and Allen vanquishing unbeaten Stanford to make the NCAA tournament. I remember watching Tim Lincecum pitch in Tacome at the State Championships. I recall hunting for that perfect parking spot underneath the Alaskan Way Viaduct before heading to the Kingdome or Safeco field. I was there for Buhner's final home run, Ichiro breaking George Sisler's record, a Felix start during his rookie season, and one of Edgar's final games. Edgar's double in 1995 will likely always be my 1st or 2nd favorite sports memory. I will always remember Dave Niehaus recounting every second of that play, his voice ripping through the radio with passion and Griffey smiling as big as a human being can smile on the bottom of that joyous melee. I remember listening to Niehaus on the radio, or Groz with Gas in the afternoon. I remember getting Dicks-Drive-In before a Sonics or Thunderbirds game at Key Arena.

And seeing shots of Smith Tower, the Space Needle, the ferries and Pike Place Market reminded me of all the Seattle stuff I need to do again. I want to grab a Top Pot donut and walk around Greenlake on a lazy afternoon. I want to see the late movie at the Crest and then head to Dicks-Drive-In. I want to beat some shag balls at the UW Driving Range and have a helicopter land at the pad a mere pitch shot away. I want to watch my tee shot disappear down the 1st fairway at Jackson Park. I want to take the ferry to Whidbey Island and visit my favorite spot on earth. I want to go to Nasai Teriyaki just outside University Village or Hawaiian Barbecue on the Ave. I want to stand on the 17th tee at West Seattle, looking at the Seattle skyline and the iconic orange cranes. I want to walk through the Quad when the cherry blossoms are in full bloom. I want to find an afternoon disappear at the University Book Store. I want to wear a raincoat instead of a topcoat. I want to be driving north on I-5 when Mt. Rainier rises gloriously in front of you. I want to eat Ivar's outside in the late afternoon sun. I want to wait in the line out the door to get a Red Mill Burger. I want to eat the garlic fries at Safeco and wish there was more than just one apple wedge. I want to drive through Fremont and see what the statues are dressed up as. I want to fly into Seattle and see Hood and Rainier peeking above the clouds. I want to watch the fireworks from Gasworks Park.

I also want to do all the things I never did while I lived in Seattle. I want to visit the rainforest. I want to become decent on the slopes at Snoqualmie Pass. I want to visit every single Micro-Brewery and pub in Seattle and find my favorite. I want to drink Seattle coffee and eat Seattle seafood since I've come to love both since I left. I want to bike the Burke Gilman trail. I want to Kayak the Sound. I want to catch a show at the Skychurch, Triple Door and the Showbox. I want to play Chambers Bay, Semiahmoo, Apple Tree and Desert Canyon. I want to take the ferry to Bainbridge just for the heck of it, find out what's so cool about Alki, and take a trip to Portland to confirm that I never want to live there. I want to lose my mind at Qwest Field. And more.

I don't know how long it'll be before I get back, or how long I'll be back, but I can assure you this, I'll be back.

The Mariners Offense

The Mariners offense has been very, very bad this year. Sure it’s due to atypically awful years from many, but still, the epic futileness is beyond comical at this point.

Colby Rasmus

St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Colby Rasmus expressed some displeasure over his playing time this year. Tony LaRussa and Albert Pujols responded using less-than-cordial words. The latest news out of Cardinals camp appears to be positive regarding the situation, but who really knows with LaRussa headed out of town. He surely doesn't want to get involved in a feud mere weeks before he hit the massive manager market. Colby Rasmus would look absolutely fantastic in left field for the Mariners. He's really cheap, and productive. Put his left-handed bat in the lower-middle portion of our lineup, and his glove in our expansive left field, and this team has the makings of a real young core. Offer some package of Michael Saunders, Greg Halman, and David Aardsma. Players like Nick Hill, Stephen Hensley, Rob Johnson, Mike Carp, Brad Nelson, Matt Tuiasosopo, David Pauley, Garrett Olson and Luke French are always available to round out a trade. Perhaps I'm underselling Saunders or overselling Rasmus, but I think Rasmus is a star and has already proven so at the major league level. The Mariners need to capitalize on inefficiencies like this random clubhouse spat.

Dave Cameron of USS Mariners and Fangraphs has already lobbied for plucking Kevin Frandsen and Matt Downs from their respective crowded infields, neither of which ended up happening. His ideas were also predicated on exploiting inefficiencies, namely abnormal infield depth. While the Moneyball era of On-Base-Percentage is long gone, the basic tenet of finding the undervalued trait still holds. Perhaps durable pitchers than throw over 200 innings like Jon Garland, Joe Blanton, MarkBuehrle, or Dan Haren, super utility players like Ben Zobrist, Omar Infante, the Izturis brothers, or Felipe Lopez, or relief pitchers with either very extreme or very non-extreme platoon splits are the next inefficiencies. Whatever those inefficiencies are, I hope Tom Tango, Tony Blengino, and Jack Zduriencik will find them first.

Jose Lopez

It’s no secret that Jose Lopez has been terrible this year. His .267 wOBA combined with a somewhat passable 2.5 UZR have produced a WAR of exactly zero. He’s making 2.3 million this year, which seemed like a bargain, and his 4.5 million option for next year appeared to be a no-brainer. Now he has no part of the Mariners’ future plans. It’s been rumored narrowly that the Rockies are interested. This makes me ecstatic.

The player I really want is Seth Smith. He’s a 28 year old left handed hitting outfielder with great power and a good glove who simply hasn’t been given much of a chance. Put him in Safeco as our full-time DH, and I think he’d hit 20-25 HR’s, and be a real force in the middle of our order.

The Rockies have other pieces that get me excited. Between Clint Barmes, Jonathan Herrera, and Eric Young Jr., the Rockies can’t play all of them. Barmes has the best glove and can play SS, but is under team control for the shortest period of time. Young and Herrera are both very young, very cheap, very fast 2B who may or may not have a permanent place should they join the Mariners. At the very least, they’d provide depth and upside at bargain prices.

Outfielder Ryan Spilborghs and catcher Chris Iannetta are other interesting pieces that could find themselves out of a job depending on who the Rockies decide to put their faith in.

Jose Lopez straight up for any one of those guys would make me very happy. Get pumped if Zduriencik somehow pries Seth Smith out of Colorado.

This Is Why I Read

Morgan Ensberg

Dave Cameron

Don Boudreaux

Random

I really enjoy watching the Red Sox beat the Yankees.

These are two awesome videos:

Joshua Sacco’s version of Herb Brooks’ speech in Miracle.

At Fenway

The Mariners are 1-0

There are a lot of things I care more about than the Women’s Final Four. Like eating broccoli stalks. With Rachel Ray. In Russia. In winter. Nuclear winter.

You should all watch these:

OK Go-This Too Shall Pass-Version 1

OK Go-This Too Shall Pass-Version 2

OK Go-This Too Shall Pass-Matt Peterson’s Version

Jason Heyward is crazy good. If you can find the video, you don't even see the ball leave the bat.

Do some people not buy the "forever" stamps at the USPS? Can these people please move to Cuba?

Estimated iPad sales are over 434,000. That's only 260 million in gross revenue. Which is gross.

I think a lot of people (myself included) will be getting their wish before the year is over.

Jennifer Hudson's version of "One Shining Moment."

On that same topic, we were an inch or two from witnessing one the greatest moments in sports history.

MLB Trade Value

Dave Cameron, who writes for USS Mariner, Fangraphs, and the Wall Street Journal, among others, is concluding a fantastic series on Fangraphs. He is ranking the top 50 assets in Major League Baseball. Players amass Wins Above Replacement (WAR). A team composed entirely of replacement level players wins about 50 games, so it takes roughly 35-45 WAR to be a playoff team. This past offseason, teams paid roughly 4.5 millions per WAR on the free agent market. As you can see, teams cannot buy their way to the playoffs; their payroll would be at least 180 million. So players that are within their six years of team control and quite valuable. Taking into account WAR, projected WAR, current and projected salaries, date becoming eligible for arbitration, date becoming a free agent, risk, potential, and scarcity, Cameron is exposing the masses to a new way of valuing baseball players. No longer are Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, and Manny Ramirez the most valuable players to their teams. Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Albert Pujols, and Matt Wieters hold those spots now. I've included links to the series below. The top 5 will be revealed Monday on Fangraphs.

Introduction

#50-46

#45-41

#40-36

#35-31

#30-26

#25-21

#20-16

#15-11

#10-6

Player Valuation

In this article, Dave Cameron points out something that most baseball fans would be shocked to know. Because of the Mariners' black hole at shortstop composed of Yuniesky Betancourt and Ronny Cedeno, the Mariners would be well served to trade Erik Bedard for Rays shortstop Reid Brignac. Now the common fan would think the Mariners are getting ripped off. But digging below the surface, Cameron points out how this is not the case. The crux of the argument lies in relative value, something that is ignored in real baseball and fantasy baseball alike. The difference between Brignac and our current shortstops is roughly equal to the difference between Bedard and whoever we would plug in there to replace him. Absolute value is irrelevant. In fantasy baseball, the top catchers are drastically undervalued. The top catchers will put up lowers numbers in almost every category compared to outfielders and first basemen. But this difference is irrelevant. The difference between catchers is the important one. There is a distinct "top tier" of catchers, led by Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. The value of owning Joe Mauer over Bengie Molina is greater than the value of owning Albert Pujols over Paul Konerko. Show me an owner who owns Bengie Molina and Albert Pujols, with Konerko available on the waiver wire, who trades Pujols for Mauer, and I'll show you someone who will do well. Relative value people. Learn it and succeed.

This blog

This blog will be about anything and everything I want to write about. A lot of it will be about baseball. But not all of it.

The Mariners are rumored to be involved with two players: Rich Hill and Bobby Abreu. After an offseason of signing Chris Shelton, Russell Branyan, Mike Sweeney and trading for Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Garrett Olson, Ronny Cedeno, Jose Lugo, Jason Vargas, Maikel Cleto, Mike Carp, and Ezequiel Carrera, new general manager Jack Zduriencik has started off his tenure in a fantastic way. Rich Hill is out of options with the Cubs, and even though he has exhibited Rick Ankiel syndrome, he still boasts great upside, and if gained cheaply, would be another solid move. Bobby Abreu gets me really excited. His price has steadily been dropping this offseason, and is now open to a one-year deal. If the Mariners can sign him for one year for something between 6 and 12 million, I would be ecstatic. The commitment is small, and Abreu's incentive to perform is enormous. The Mariners are moving in the right direction.


The Hope College men's basketball team has been getting better throughout the entire season. After graduating four starters and many other reserves. Hope seemed to be rebuilding. Early in the season, the Dutchmen seemed to be searching. Coach Glenn VanWieren would play as many as 15 players per game, switching starting lineups, looking for a good combination. The transfer of Doug Sharples and the ineligibility of Jon Snikkers actually helped the team by paring down the amount of players vying for minutes. Since then, GVW has settled on a rotation and the team is improving fast.

Jesse Reimink is as good as he has been all year, leading the team in many categories, playing harder than any other player in the country. A true leader, Jesse may be able to will this team past Calvin twice more and perhaps into the national tournament.

Pete Bunn, a transfer from D1 Oakland University, is starting to realize that he is better than everyone else. Only 6'3, his leaping ability is rivaled by few. Because of this, he can get his own shot at will. His scoring is increasing and he is a true second option.

Will Bowser is finally growing into his enormous potential. At 6'6 and with awesome "hops" Bowser is a force on the boards. After 27 points and 20 rebounds in his last two games, he is adding real value to the team. As his offensive game continues to develop, he becomes more and more dangerous. MIAA first-team honors await in future years.

David Krombeen, a freshmen point guard from Grandville, has worked his way from fourth on the depth chart at the beginning of the season, to an entrenched starter that is invaluable to his team. Lighting quick, Krombeen pushes the action constantly, a key point for the smaller and quicker Dutchmen. He is smart, accumulating steals, quick, accumulating blocks, and a great finisher. He will be a very special player as he becomes more comfortable.

As I sit here at the community table in LJ's, I gaze outside at the intense snow flurries. We have not had a thaw here since the beginning of the month. When the sun is out and the snow is fresh, it is truly beautiful. When it is overcast and the snow is dirty, it dampens the spirit.