Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Player Valuation

In this article, Dave Cameron points out something that most baseball fans would be shocked to know. Because of the Mariners' black hole at shortstop composed of Yuniesky Betancourt and Ronny Cedeno, the Mariners would be well served to trade Erik Bedard for Rays shortstop Reid Brignac. Now the common fan would think the Mariners are getting ripped off. But digging below the surface, Cameron points out how this is not the case. The crux of the argument lies in relative value, something that is ignored in real baseball and fantasy baseball alike. The difference between Brignac and our current shortstops is roughly equal to the difference between Bedard and whoever we would plug in there to replace him. Absolute value is irrelevant. In fantasy baseball, the top catchers are drastically undervalued. The top catchers will put up lowers numbers in almost every category compared to outfielders and first basemen. But this difference is irrelevant. The difference between catchers is the important one. There is a distinct "top tier" of catchers, led by Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. The value of owning Joe Mauer over Bengie Molina is greater than the value of owning Albert Pujols over Paul Konerko. Show me an owner who owns Bengie Molina and Albert Pujols, with Konerko available on the waiver wire, who trades Pujols for Mauer, and I'll show you someone who will do well. Relative value people. Learn it and succeed.

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