Sunday, June 12, 2011

Why Trading Felix Hernandez is the right move for the Mariners

If you made it past the title and are still reading this, you're either quite smart or simply have nothing better to do. While trading Felix Hernandez is a move that will likely never happen, due to the tremendous fan backlash, here's why I think it makes sense:

Proposal: Trade Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Brandon League and Miguel Olivo to the New York Yankees.

1. The Yankees are hurting in the pitching department like never before, giving the Mariners incredible leverage. Any Pettitte didn't come out of retirement, AJ Burnett has been terrible as expected, Phil Hughes and the resurgent Bartolo Colon are on the DL, Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain are on the DL, and Manny Banuelos is not ready for the bigs.

2. The Mariners are not as good as their record. Miguel Olivo, Brendan Ryan and Carlos Peguero won't continue to hit like this, Pineda will hit his rough spots and Bedard likely can't stay healthy.

3. The Yankees have a very strong farm system. Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine, Slade Heathcott, Adam Warren, Graham Stoneburner, etc, etc, etc, etc.

The basic reasoning is the Yankees have incredible needs and incredible demands from the fan base and ownership. The Mariners can't win this year, or next in all likelihood. I'd still need a lot from NY. Any package would have to start with Gardner, Montero and Banuelos. If the Yankees are willing to start there as well as include middle-level prospects like Eduardo Nunez, Betances, Noesi, Brackman, Heathcott, Laird, etc, then the Mariners should absolutely have the discussion. If I told you that this trade would decrease our chances of making the playoffs in 2011 from 15% to 5%, from 20% to 10% in 2012, but increased it from 10% to 20% in 2013 and from 15% to 30% in 2014, isn't this a trade you make?

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