Showing posts with label ERA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ERA. Show all posts

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Pitcher Breakdowns

Player-ERA, FIP, BABIP, interpretation

Felix Hernandez-3.53/3.41/.316, I still like Felix has underperformed, but he is still only 23 years old. His K's are up and BB's are down from the past few years, which definitely bodes well.

Tim Lincecum-3.75/1.86/.392, Lincecum should get a lot better. His FIP is way, way lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is one of the highest in baseball among qualifying pitcher. His K's are up and BB's are down from last year, amazingly after that CY Young 2008 campaign.

Josh Beckett-5.85/4.16/.366, Beckett also should be a lot better. His numbers are the same as Lincecum, just not quite the same magnitude of gaps. His control is off, walking 4.34 batters per 9, as opposed to 1.76 last year and 1.79 the year before.

Matt Garza-3.50/4.09/.224, Garza should see a little regression. His BABIP of .224 is unsustainable. His fastball is down 0.6 MPH from last year, and his walks are up a bit. I still think Garza will make great strides this year, but his peripherals will keep those expectations tempered.

Kevin Slowey-4.91/4.43/.370, Slowey will be great this year. He is walking even fewer batters than last year. His fastball is down 0.7 MPH, and he is striking out 0.88 less per 9 than last year. His FIP is lower than his ERA, and the 0.370 BABIP will come down, probably significantly. 220 IP at an ERA around 4, chalk it up.

Jair Jurrjens-2.06/4.09/.244, the peripherals do not bode well for Jurrjens. A FIP of 4.09 is not shabby though. He is only 23, and only time will tell whether he makes significant strides this year, or whether it will take a few more years.

Rick Porcello-3.86/4.98/.257, Only 20 years old, Porcello has pitched very well. His pitch counts have been low, and his control has been good. An extreme groundball pitcher, he will develop into his strikeout capabilities, much like King Felix, Brandon Webb, Chien Ming Wang, and others.

John Danks-4.82/4.10/.329, All signs point to great things for Danks: FIP less than ERA, increased MPH, increased K/9, decreased BB/9, He is a minor sleeper for me; I think he will be dominant, a top 15-20 pitcher in my league.