On Danny Hultzen, Guaranteed Money and a German

The MLB Signing deadline was at midnight eastern time on Monday, and even though the deal wasn't officially announced until after the deadline, the Mariners signed their top pick, #2 pick Danny Hultzen, left-handed starting pitcher from the University of Virginia. The deal included an 8.5 million guaranteed Major League deal, the most guaranteed money of the entire draft class. Already developed, Hultzen features excellent command and a plus change up to go with his low 90's fastball. He should move fast, perhaps reaching the big leagues before Paxton or Walker. Pitching depth is something to be protected. We can see this clearly with Atlanta, who entered the year with 5 great starters, but has already spread around about 20 starts between Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. Ideally the Mariners will trade Vargas, Beaven, Walker or Paxton for a quality 3B or C, since we have neither in our system. Mariners fans will certainly drool over the prospect of a King Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Walker, Paxton rotation, with Furbush and Beaven as flexible swing men. //The Mariners also brought two shortstops into the system, Brad Miller from Clemson and Gavin Cahoes from Germany. Both add depth and upside to one of the most difficult positions to develop talent.

On Young Mariners and Why the Future Just Isn't That Bright

The Mariners have Felix Hernandez locked up for a few more years, Pineda for a bunch, and James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen(fingers crossed) close behind. Paxton and Walker have cemented themselves as both elite starting pitching prospects and fast movers. So why isn't the future bright? The offense. We have little of it now and there's not much coming. We have Ackley, Smoak, Gutierrez and Ichiro as our only above average offensive options and Ichiro is in serious decline. Olivo, kennedy, Ryan, and Wilson are not solutions in any sense of the word. What about Mike Carp? He's hitting well now, but expecting 20+ batting runs from him is optimistic, and coupled with his poor defense, he's not likely a major league starter on a winning team. How about Trayvon Robinson? He has some pop and some speed, and age is on his side, but he exhibits the same propensity for strike outs that plague most minor leaguers. While not in Peguero or Halman territory, he still likely lacks the contact to be a contributing major leaguer. Casper Wells? Wells may actually be able to stick in LF, but is a #6 hitter at best. Kyle Seager? He won't hit as well as he has been doing in the minors, and will hit much better than he has in the majors, but at the end of the day he's a decent OBP guy with little power and little power potential. #7-8 hitter in an average lineup. Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, Alex Liddi and Matt Mangini are not major leaguers-take my word for it. Nick Franklin? He's seen his power development stagnate this year, and since he's unlikely to stick at SS may force a move to 3B since Ackley blocks him at 2B. This is a bat we can dream on as the potential is there to be a solid run producer. Expecting anything out of Wily Mo Pena, Johermyn Chavez, Rich Poythress or Dennis Raben will probably lead to disappointment. The only savior is years away: Guillermo Pimentel. He has crazy power and already exhibits pith recognition and plate discipline light years better than what Halman and Peguero show right now. The Mariners continue to stock the system via international signings and Pimentel is a shining example. In sum, if you think an Olivo, Smoak, Ackley, Ryan, Seager, Carp, Guti, Ichiro, Robinson lineup is anything but a bottom 5 in baseball, hopes may exceed reality. Hopefully a few guys pan out a bit above than expected, the pitching is phenomenal as expected and a big-name, left-handed power bat can be coaxed here in a few years.

Why Trading Felix Hernandez is the right move for the Mariners

If you made it past the title and are still reading this, you're either quite smart or simply have nothing better to do. While trading Felix Hernandez is a move that will likely never happen, due to the tremendous fan backlash, here's why I think it makes sense:

Proposal: Trade Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Brandon League and Miguel Olivo to the New York Yankees.

1. The Yankees are hurting in the pitching department like never before, giving the Mariners incredible leverage. Any Pettitte didn't come out of retirement, AJ Burnett has been terrible as expected, Phil Hughes and the resurgent Bartolo Colon are on the DL, Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain are on the DL, and Manny Banuelos is not ready for the bigs.

2. The Mariners are not as good as their record. Miguel Olivo, Brendan Ryan and Carlos Peguero won't continue to hit like this, Pineda will hit his rough spots and Bedard likely can't stay healthy.

3. The Yankees have a very strong farm system. Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine, Slade Heathcott, Adam Warren, Graham Stoneburner, etc, etc, etc, etc.

The basic reasoning is the Yankees have incredible needs and incredible demands from the fan base and ownership. The Mariners can't win this year, or next in all likelihood. I'd still need a lot from NY. Any package would have to start with Gardner, Montero and Banuelos. If the Yankees are willing to start there as well as include middle-level prospects like Eduardo Nunez, Betances, Noesi, Brackman, Heathcott, Laird, etc, then the Mariners should absolutely have the discussion. If I told you that this trade would decrease our chances of making the playoffs in 2011 from 15% to 5%, from 20% to 10% in 2012, but increased it from 10% to 20% in 2013 and from 15% to 30% in 2014, isn't this a trade you make?

Pitcher Breakdowns

Player-ERA, FIP, BABIP, interpretation

Felix Hernandez-3.53/3.41/.316, I still like Felix has underperformed, but he is still only 23 years old. His K's are up and BB's are down from the past few years, which definitely bodes well.

Tim Lincecum-3.75/1.86/.392, Lincecum should get a lot better. His FIP is way, way lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is one of the highest in baseball among qualifying pitcher. His K's are up and BB's are down from last year, amazingly after that CY Young 2008 campaign.

Josh Beckett-5.85/4.16/.366, Beckett also should be a lot better. His numbers are the same as Lincecum, just not quite the same magnitude of gaps. His control is off, walking 4.34 batters per 9, as opposed to 1.76 last year and 1.79 the year before.

Matt Garza-3.50/4.09/.224, Garza should see a little regression. His BABIP of .224 is unsustainable. His fastball is down 0.6 MPH from last year, and his walks are up a bit. I still think Garza will make great strides this year, but his peripherals will keep those expectations tempered.

Kevin Slowey-4.91/4.43/.370, Slowey will be great this year. He is walking even fewer batters than last year. His fastball is down 0.7 MPH, and he is striking out 0.88 less per 9 than last year. His FIP is lower than his ERA, and the 0.370 BABIP will come down, probably significantly. 220 IP at an ERA around 4, chalk it up.

Jair Jurrjens-2.06/4.09/.244, the peripherals do not bode well for Jurrjens. A FIP of 4.09 is not shabby though. He is only 23, and only time will tell whether he makes significant strides this year, or whether it will take a few more years.

Rick Porcello-3.86/4.98/.257, Only 20 years old, Porcello has pitched very well. His pitch counts have been low, and his control has been good. An extreme groundball pitcher, he will develop into his strikeout capabilities, much like King Felix, Brandon Webb, Chien Ming Wang, and others.

John Danks-4.82/4.10/.329, All signs point to great things for Danks: FIP less than ERA, increased MPH, increased K/9, decreased BB/9, He is a minor sleeper for me; I think he will be dominant, a top 15-20 pitcher in my league.

Fantasy Baseball

The Hope Flying Dutchmen are riding a three game winning streak. After an inexplicable three game losing streak to start the season, the ship appears to have been righted. Now tied for sixth in the league, but only two games out of first. The vast majority of the league is pretty closely bunched. But on to the Dutchmen.

Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Markakis have been offensive stalwarts, with Marco Scutaro and Adam Lind providing depth. The return of Joe Mauer has been a huge lift. Mauer has been producing at superhuman levels, at around three points per AB. If Chris Davis awakens this offense will be one of the best in the league.

The pitching staff was the strong point entering the draft as well as ending the draft. Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Josh Beckett, Kevin Slowey, Jair Jurrjens, and Rick Porcello spearheaded a strong staff. Except for Garza and Slowey, the rest have even underperformed expectations and their true talent levels. The unexpected implosion of Chien Ming Wang was offset by the pickups of Koji Uehara, Brian Tallet, and Brett Cecil.

I was just able to trade Mike Napoli, who is no longer needed now that Mauer is back, and the upstart rookie Cecil for John Danks. In my mind, it is the classic sell high buy low trade. I don't expect Cecil to continue at this pace, he has a low BABIP, and doesn't throw extremely hard. Danks has had 4 great starts and three terrible ones. I fully expect him to be the White Sox's ace and pitch like one.

I'm really liking my chances going forward. With the exception of my shortstop position, I don't have a hole. My pitchers have the ability to carry me.