Pitcher Breakdowns

Player-ERA, FIP, BABIP, interpretation

Felix Hernandez-3.53/3.41/.316, I still like Felix has underperformed, but he is still only 23 years old. His K's are up and BB's are down from the past few years, which definitely bodes well.

Tim Lincecum-3.75/1.86/.392, Lincecum should get a lot better. His FIP is way, way lower than his ERA, and his BABIP is one of the highest in baseball among qualifying pitcher. His K's are up and BB's are down from last year, amazingly after that CY Young 2008 campaign.

Josh Beckett-5.85/4.16/.366, Beckett also should be a lot better. His numbers are the same as Lincecum, just not quite the same magnitude of gaps. His control is off, walking 4.34 batters per 9, as opposed to 1.76 last year and 1.79 the year before.

Matt Garza-3.50/4.09/.224, Garza should see a little regression. His BABIP of .224 is unsustainable. His fastball is down 0.6 MPH from last year, and his walks are up a bit. I still think Garza will make great strides this year, but his peripherals will keep those expectations tempered.

Kevin Slowey-4.91/4.43/.370, Slowey will be great this year. He is walking even fewer batters than last year. His fastball is down 0.7 MPH, and he is striking out 0.88 less per 9 than last year. His FIP is lower than his ERA, and the 0.370 BABIP will come down, probably significantly. 220 IP at an ERA around 4, chalk it up.

Jair Jurrjens-2.06/4.09/.244, the peripherals do not bode well for Jurrjens. A FIP of 4.09 is not shabby though. He is only 23, and only time will tell whether he makes significant strides this year, or whether it will take a few more years.

Rick Porcello-3.86/4.98/.257, Only 20 years old, Porcello has pitched very well. His pitch counts have been low, and his control has been good. An extreme groundball pitcher, he will develop into his strikeout capabilities, much like King Felix, Brandon Webb, Chien Ming Wang, and others.

John Danks-4.82/4.10/.329, All signs point to great things for Danks: FIP less than ERA, increased MPH, increased K/9, decreased BB/9, He is a minor sleeper for me; I think he will be dominant, a top 15-20 pitcher in my league.

Fantasy Baseball

The Hope Flying Dutchmen are riding a three game winning streak. After an inexplicable three game losing streak to start the season, the ship appears to have been righted. Now tied for sixth in the league, but only two games out of first. The vast majority of the league is pretty closely bunched. But on to the Dutchmen.

Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Markakis have been offensive stalwarts, with Marco Scutaro and Adam Lind providing depth. The return of Joe Mauer has been a huge lift. Mauer has been producing at superhuman levels, at around three points per AB. If Chris Davis awakens this offense will be one of the best in the league.

The pitching staff was the strong point entering the draft as well as ending the draft. Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Garza, Josh Beckett, Kevin Slowey, Jair Jurrjens, and Rick Porcello spearheaded a strong staff. Except for Garza and Slowey, the rest have even underperformed expectations and their true talent levels. The unexpected implosion of Chien Ming Wang was offset by the pickups of Koji Uehara, Brian Tallet, and Brett Cecil.

I was just able to trade Mike Napoli, who is no longer needed now that Mauer is back, and the upstart rookie Cecil for John Danks. In my mind, it is the classic sell high buy low trade. I don't expect Cecil to continue at this pace, he has a low BABIP, and doesn't throw extremely hard. Danks has had 4 great starts and three terrible ones. I fully expect him to be the White Sox's ace and pitch like one.

I'm really liking my chances going forward. With the exception of my shortstop position, I don't have a hole. My pitchers have the ability to carry me.