1. Tampa Bay Rays
David Price (3.50) FIP
Matt Garza (4.18)
James Shields (4.26)
Jeff Niemann (4.78)
Wade Davis (5.11)
Andy Sonnanstine (5.01)
The Rays have a dynamite top 2 in David Price and Matt Garza. Shields is trending upward, finally getting results to go with his solid peripherals. I don't like Niemann or Davis at all, but one may get the call in a long series. Hellickson is the wild card, but all indications point to the Rays keeping him in the pen, much like Francisco Rodriguez and David Price of years' past. The Rays' depth is what makes them #1.
2. Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano (2.37)
Carl Pavano (3.71)
Brian Duensing (3.67)
Kevin Slowey (4.09)
Nick Blackburn (5.17)
Scott Baker (4.03)
Some may take exception to this ranking, but I think the Twins are better than people think. Liriano is a legit ace, ready to shine in big games. Pavano and Duensing aren't world beaters in games 2 and 3, but they will keep you in games. Throw in Slowey, Blackburn, and Baker for some depth, and you have a postseason ready rotation.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright (2.93)
Chris Carpenter (3.69)
Jaime Garcia (3.40)
Jake Westbrook (4.40)
Kyle Lohse (4.29)
Jeff Suppan (5.44)
Brad Penny (3.43)
Wainwright and Carpenter form perhaps the best 1-2 punch, but it means nothing if the Cards don't make the playoffs. Garcia is unproven, and I don't like Westbrook all that much. They don't have depth either.
4. Chicago White Sox
John Danks (3.58)
Edwin Jackson (3.85)
Gavin Floyd (3.45)
Mark Buehrle (4.05)
Freddy Garcia (4.90)
Depth is the White Sox strength, as Jackson, Floyd, and Buehrle are all interchangeable. They don't have the star strength to pull through, and will likely miss the playoffs
5. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum (3.33)
Matt Cain (3.57)
Jonathan Sanchez (4.02)
Barry Zito (4.37)
Madison Bumgarner (4.14)
I love what the Giants bring to the table. They have a combination between extreme upside and consistency. I also love Bumgarner as a swing option, both in long relief, as well as for a spot start. I really like them to make the playoffs.
6.Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson (3.71)
Tommy Hanson (3.43)
Jair Jurrjens (3.86)
Derek Lowe (4.29)
Mike Minor (2.66)
Kenshin Kawakami (4.24)
The Braves have a weird mix of talent. Hudson is pitching over his head, and could implode at any moment; Lowe has bone spurs and could simply die; Hanson and Jurrjens are primed to deliver big performances right now and often.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
Roy Oswalt (3.50)
Cole Hamels (3.78)
Joe Blanton (4.37)
Kyle Kendrick (5.07)
Vance Worley (3.44)
Jamie Moyer (5.00)
The Phillies have a great 1-2 punch, and literally nothing else. They will lose every game 3 in the playoffs, and are on the fence for even making it there.
8. New York Yankees
CC Sabathia (3.63)
Phil Hughes (4.24)
AJ Burnett (4.67)
Ivan Nova (3.96)
Javier Vazquez (5.39)
Andy Pettitte (3.96)
Dustin Moseley (6.04)
The Yankees have Sabathia and a bunch of question marks. Hughes is in unprecedented territory innings wise; Burnett is a two pitch pitcher floundering through major league hitters; Nova is as unproven as you get; Vazquez is hit or miss; and Pettitte is struggling to get healthy. Their offense will have to keep them in games.
9. Texas Rangers
Cliff Lee (2.63)
CJ Wilson (3.60)
Colby Lewis (3.69)
Tommy Hunter (5.46)
Derek Holland (4.78)
Scott Feldman (4.73)
Rich Harden (6.20)
Cliff Lee will be alright, and will be lights out. But CJ Wilson can't sustain this performance, and everyone else is suspect. I like Holland, but the Rangers won't give him a playoff start. The Rangers will be 1-and-done this postseason.
10. Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez (3.10)
Jason Hammel (3.48)
Jhoulys Chacin (3.52)
Jorge de la Rosa (4.26)
Esmil Rogers (3.28)
Jeff Francis (3.53)
Aaron Cook (4.67)
After Ubaldo, the Rockies don't have the firepower to make the playoffs. I like their talents for future years, but they won't play much in October in 2010.
11. Cincinnati Reds
Bronson Arroyo (4.57)
Johnny Cueto (4.06)
Travis Wood (3.62)
Mike Leake (4.70)
Edinson Volquez (5.85)
Aaron Harang (4.54)
Homer Bailey (3.98)
Matt Maloney (4.21)
The Reds are the opposite of the White Sox; they have great upside and zero consistency. Injuries, walks, and home runs have wreaked havoc with this rotation. Watch out next year but I see these Reds disappointing this year. Of course, they could surprise me like they've surprised everyone this year.
12. San Diego Padres
Mat Latos (2.96)
Clayton Richard (3.68)
Jon Garland (4.40)
Wade LeBlanc (4.76)
Cory Luebke (8.90)
Kevin Correia (4.71)
The Padres pitchers are creatures of their environment: Petco Park. Outside of Latos, they are all replacement level, or below in Garland's, LeBlanc's, and Correia's case. They will continue the slide and miss the playoffs, and will finish 4th or 5th in the west next year.
Predictions:
AL West: Texas Rangers (3)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins (2)
AL East: New York Yankees (1)
AL WIld Card: Tampa Bay Rays (4)
ALCS: Rays over Yankees
NL West: San Francisco Giants (3)
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds (1)
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (2)
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves (4)
NLCS: Giants over Braves
World Series: Rays over Giants in 7
I didn't know bone spurs could cause death.
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