Fantasy Baseball

This saturday is the annual Delta Six fantasy baseball live draft. I had a down year last year, finishing sixth? The draft is a large component of overall success. I have a lot on confidence in my ability to not only project the value of players, but also their relative value. In my mind, that is the most important thing. It doesn't matter as much what a player's actual value is. It matters what their perceived value is. Then all I have to do is exploit the differences between the two. Of course, determining those values is an extremely inexact science.
Another aspect of the draft closely related to the perceived value of player's is a player's relative value with other players. I did not say that well at all. What I mean is all positions are not created equal. An outfielder, starting pitcher, and shortstop getting the same number of points are not equal. Some positions have far fewer good players, and greater gaps between tiers. Understanding that the top few catchers are more valuable than most top outfielders and first basemen is key to building a successful team.
Another realization I have is that over half of players drafted do not finish the year with their original teams. Because of this massive turnover, it is smart to take risks near the end of the draft. Drafting the solid, known quantities are useless because the marginal gains over those in the free agent pool are miniscule. Taking a chance on Mark Prior, Andrew McCutchen, or Dan Giese can prove extremely valuable.
The draft is an exciting time of quick decisions, gamesmanship, and witty banter. I always look forward to it.